"If You Don't Know It's Impossible, It's Easier to Do."

Neil Gaiman gave a brilliant speech with ten pieces of advice for young artists. I found it applicable to business or just about anything in life. 

Some of my biggest successes in business were where I had no clue that what I was trying to do was probably impossible. I just went ahead and did it. Sure it was hard, but it often worked because I was the only one who tried. Gaiman captures this perfectly:

When you start out...you have no idea what you're doing. This is great. People who know what they're doing know the rules, and they know what is possible and what is impossible. You do not. And you should not. The rules on what is possible and impossible...were made by people who had not tested the bounds of the possible by going beyond them. And you can. If you don't know it's impossible, it's easier to do. And because nobody has done it before, they haven't made up rules to stop anyone doing that particular thing again.

In our materialist world, money is seen as the key motivation for people. Steve Jobs dispelled this famously with, "Being the richest man in the cemetery doesn't matter to me... Going to bed at night saying we've done something wonderful... that's what matters to me." Gaiman agrees:

Nothing I did where the only reason for doing it was for the money was ever worth it, except as bitter experience. Usually I didn't end up getting the money, either.

But how do you start out? Before I knew anyone or had any experience, I used to have a 10:1 ratio -- for every ten calls I made, I wouldn't be discouraged if I could just get one person to call me back. Gaiman uses a metaphor of being stranded on a desert island, and every career attempt is like putting a message in a bottle and dropping it in the ocean. You may have to put out hundreds before the bottles start coming back. Eventually, they do.

Soon enough, however, you face the problems of success. When you do finally make it, the world starts coming to you -- the bottles start washing in -- and ironically that can prevent you from doing the things that made you successful in the first place.

The world conspires to stop you from doing the thing that you do because you're successful. There was a day when I realized I had become someone who professionally replied to email, and who wrote as a hobby. I started answering fewer emails and found I was writing much more.

And why you should continue to take big risks:

The things I've done that worked the best were the things I was least certain about, the stories where I was sure they would either work or more likely be the kind of embarrassing failures that people would gather together and discuss until the end of time…. Looking back at them, people explain why they were inevitable successes, and when I was doing them I had no idea. I still don't. And where would be the fun in doing something you knew was going to work?

Exceptional advice for anyone who's ever had success or sought it.

How I named EarthLink

In the fall of 1993, I was sitting in my apartment in Southern California trying to come up with a name for the Internet company I was about to start. I was 22 years old.

I recently came across my original notes from back then, and here's how it happened. I had first scribbled a few suffixes ("link", "soft", "works") and prefixes ("net", "super", etc.), then narrowed it down to some favorites, put them into a grid and called six friends, including my future wife, Arwen. The winner by a slim majority: "EarthLink". That was it.

I'm not sure if I conducted a trademark search, but I went with it. 

Then, in late 1994 after we had launched and we were growing like a rocket, I was notified that the word "EarthLink" was already trademarked and owned by a major US cable TV company. We were facing a disaster. Our lawyers wanted to start writing letters. Instead, I just cold called the cable company's headquarters back East, talked my way to their general counsel and explained our predicament. He thought about it for a few minutes, and in a stroke of enormous generosity, released the name to us, completely and at no charge.

Looking at this nearly two decades later, my conclusions:

  1. The name EarthLink worked well because it was descriptive, but also whimsical and memorable. It made a technological mystery sound approachable. It sounded disarming and helpful, and that perfectly summed up what later made the company successful.
  2. A name doesn't make or break a company. It's an empty vessel you fill with the right strategy and execution. But the vessel can be too small or it could have leaks. EarthLink was a perfect name for a very big, embracing idea: make it easy to connect to the Internet and bring it to the masses.
  3. Years later, I would be involved with start-ups that paid hundreds of thousands of dollars to hire specialized agencies to come up with names. Back then, my net worth was less than a hundred thousand dollars. I just had a pure idea of what I was trying to build, sat down and came up with a name. My biggest successes to date have all gone that route, and I still think it's the best way.
  4. Sometimes big companies seem unfriendly and impenetrable, but they are staffed by people just like you and me. When I called the general counsel of a big cable company, he listened to my honest plea, and he decided to help me. I'm sure saving my life made him feel really good. Sometimes it's better to just take a chance and reach out to the person who can make a difference.
  5. I'm glad I didn't choose "WanSoft"!

EarthLink went on to help millions of people onto the Internet for the first time, and in the process became a Fortune 1000 company.

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Bezos on the long game


From a great interview in Wired by Steven Levy:

Our first shareholder letter, in 1997, was entitled, “It’s all about the long term.” If everything you do needs to work on a three-year time horizon, then you’re competing against a lot of people. But if you’re willing to invest on a seven-year time horizon, you’re now competing against a fraction of those people, because very few companies are willing to do that. Just by lengthening the time horizon, you can engage in endeavors that you could never otherwise pursue. At Amazon we like things to work in five to seven years. We’re willing to plant seeds, let them grow—and we’re very stubborn. We say we’re stubborn on vision and flexible on details.

In some cases, things are inevitable. The hard part is that you don’t know how long it might take, but you know it will happen if you’re patient enough. Ebooks had to happen. Infrastructure web services had to happen. So you can do these things with conviction if you are long-term-oriented and patient.

Pure gold.

Challenging the Mundane

Some of the best business ideas are borne from the dull and boring. A simpler way to take credit card payments: Square. Easier access to town cars: Uber. Sensible dental insurance: Brighter. Notes synched on all computers and devices: Evernote. Renting unused office space: eVenues.

And now, a better thermostat: Nest.




This is what happens when a bright entrepreneur decides not to take an everyday inconvenience for granted. How many ordinary problems do we live with that we'll one day say, "I can't believe we used to..."?

Here's a few off the top of my head:

  • Traffic lights that stay red when there's no crossing cars
  • Logging into social networks and seeing stuff from people we don't care about
  • Alarm clocks that suck; it's the first thing we look when we wake up and last thing we look at before we go to bed, and it's ugly and still thinks it should be programmed like a 1980's VCR
  • No way to tell which water bottle belongs to whom at home, with guests, when playing basketball, etc. (yep, I said mundane), resulting in massive waste globally
  • The hundreds of billions of spent each year to pay people to prepare tax returns, a total waste
  • The 99% of boats that sit in harbors unused 99% of the time
  • The billions spent by advertisers reaching people who are totally outside their target audience
  • Paper money, a model left over from centuries ago

And countless other troubles and inefficiencies small and large that vex and hassle us on a daily basis, and which we assume are just a given. In solving these problems, entrepreneurs will build hugely valuable businesses. For example, Square looks like a simple device to scan a credit card, but it opens the door for small merchants to manage their customer relationships like never before, and Nest seems like a better looking thermostat but could allow consumers and producers of energy unprecedented control over their costs.

The trouble we take for granted today could turn out to be a billion dollar opportunity for the entrepreneur who sees things differently.

Steve Jobs created the most valuable company in the world





I remember the first time I met Steve Jobs like it was yesterday.

It was 1998, and Steve had returned to Apple the previous year. The first Internet gold rush was under way, and EarthLink was signing up the masses who wanted to get on the Internet for the first time. A long time Apple user, I had worked hard to make EarthLink the best ISP for the Mac, and I guess Steve had noticed, because he asked us to come up to Cupertino and meet with him. Steve walked into the conference room in jeans and flip flops and introduced himself. I told him I was an Apple fan boy since forever and asked him to tell us what his strategy was for the company. Steve got up on the white board and drew out his plan, confidently explaining how he was drastically simplifying Apple, cutting it back to four computers: a desktop and laptop each designed for home and business. And then he proposed to to make EarthLink the default ISP for Apple's new home desktop (the iMac) and eventually all Apple products.

As a result of that meeting, EarthLink became the first ISP presented to a new Mac user as soon as they turned on their computer for the first time. Apple later invested $200 million in EarthLink and one of Steve's most dedicated and insightful lieutenants, Phil Schiller, joined our board.

Today, as he steps down as CEO to battle problems with his health, many people are sharing Steve stories. Here's one from me: It was a hot August evening in 1998, and I was living in a little rented house in Toluca Lake, California. The phone rang, and I picked it up. "Hi Sky, it's Steve Jobs." After quickly getting over how he'd gotten my number, I asked him what was up. It turned out that one of EarthLink's PR team had gotten a little overly excited and briefed a reporter on our new partnership in advance of the press release. Steve had gotten wind and politely asked me to reign them in. I told him I really appreciated the heads up, and I'd do that right away. Steve gave me his home number and told me to call him if I ever needed anything. This was a guy who had at least 10,000 employees at the time.

A lot about being a great manager is knowing how much or how little detail to focus on. Howard Schultz has said, "Everything matters," and Steve Jobs certainly embodies that idea. But to me, it's as simple as, whether the outcome is accomplished directly or through your team, a great manager truly cares about everything. Steve truly cares about every detail of the user experience, far more than anyone I've ever seen, and he has an indomitable combination of being unrelenting and right.

Steve's legacy already spans generations. My 9 year old daughter isn't prone to idolize anyone, let alone me or the founder of a computer company. Last night, she asked me if I knew Steve Jobs, and when I nodded my head, she said, "cooooooool."


How I survived the Valentines Day Massacre of 1995

It was early 1995, and EarthLink was in one of its earliest growth periods. We'd just moved from our first 800 square foot office in Los Angeles to a 3,000 foot space down the hall in the same building. Even then, we quickly filled the new office, and people were sitting at desks in the hallway. We were adding subscribers at a rate faster than we could handle, sometimes growing 10% a week, and our systems were straining under the demand. We were barely managing to keep up.

Then, on February 14th, 1995, our main subscriber database — the file that held the usernames and passwords — got totally corrupted, and suddenly, we could no longer authenticate our users when they dialed in. (It was modems in those days, remember.) EarthLink was completely down. Fortunately, we had a back-up tape at the office that was only a few days old. Our engineers went to load the tape and restore our system. We would be back on in an hour, still a horrific outage, but survivable. Then, we discovered that the back-up tape was damaged and totally unreadable. We were dead in the water. If we couldn’t figure out how to get the data off that tape, EarthLink would be out of business, and I would be back to running a coffee house.

I put the word out to everyone I knew for a data recovery expert. An EarthLink customer referred me to a firm in San Diego, and within minutes, the damaged tape was speeding south in a car. We fielded calls from angry customers while waiting anxiously for news. Many hours later, we received word that although some of the data was was lost, most of the information on the tape had been taken off bit-by-bit and reconstructed. We were saved! The recovered file was loaded onto a hard drive and driven (there was no Gobbler back then) back to EarthLink's offices in LA. Our engineers stayed up all night and got us back online.

At EarthLink, February 14th, 1995 became known as the Valentines Day Massacre. We survived, and although our customers were rightfully angry with us, I think they also sensed that this was the early days of the Internet. Stuff didn't "just work" the way it does now. The next day, our modem banks were once again full of happily connected EarthLink customers. And I was back to figuring out out to hire and expand faster to keep up with demand.

Like many start-ups, there times in those early days at EarthLink when we were up against seemingly insurmountable obstacles. But we knew we had something that people wanted, so we kept going, forging ahead despite it all. Being successful, especially in a start-up, is all about perseverance. 

For a future post: How we blew up our building's power transformer and ran EarthLink for two months on a generator in the parking lot.

Posted via email from Sky Dayton's posterous

Regenerative medicine is on the verge of mainstream

Cytori makes a device that harvests stem cells and other regenerative factors from one's own adipose (fat) tissue. The resulting concentrated mix of adipose-derived regenerative cells (ADRC's) can then be injected back into the body with all kinds of benefits, from breast augmentation and reconstruction, to treatment of heart disease.

After doing a ton of research over the past two years, Cytori became my first and only investment in the medical field. Congrats to the team on the huge cover story in the November issue of Wired.

And we're all thankful that when Wired put me on the cover many years ago, they didn't ask me to take my shirt off.

Indonesia May 2005

In late May and early June, 2005, I made my second trip to the Mentawais in Western Sumatra, Indonesia. This time with some friends aboard the surf charter Pelagic .

Glossary of Surf Terms

We started the trip with a very healthy swell at a place affectionately called "The Hole" -- a big hollow left. I left some soft tissue on the reef. We surfed mostly lefts, but some fun rights as well. We got a spot called Lighthouse solid double overhead and really fun. We surfed Bravos (also known as Rags Left) head high to DOH and pumping. My friend Skylar charged big crowded and super hollow Lances Right while I found a more "playful" and empty right just up the way from it. The Pelagic crew were awesome, not hesitating to move a lot to find perfect surf.
We had a great photog who shot all digital in the water, on the tender and on land. He handed me a CD with all my shots as I walked off the boat: David Collier www.sickshots.com . The best shots he got of me are below.
After getting my share of perfect waves (and damage on the reef), I decided to leave a few days early to get back to work and the family. This entailed a hairy four hour crossing in a tiny hired speedboat driven by guys that looked (and smelled) kinda scary but turned out to be really cool. We hit two nasty squalls on the crossing -- the sky would turn dark and then it seemed like rain and waves were coming at us from every direction. The little boat had no radio or GPS, just a rusty compass. Every time we made it through a full deluge alive, the captain, all drenched, would flash a toothless smile and give me a high five.
Lots of fun. Glad I survived. The swell was a lot bigger and more consistent this time of year. Next time I may opt for the 120 foot Indies Trader IV , queen sized beds in the staterooms and a helicopter for the crossing.










Indonesia September 2004

In September 2004, I went to the Mentawais in Indonesia with Skylar Peak, Jake Burton and a few friends. We chartered the Adventure Komodo, one of the nicest and fastest boats in the area. Mike Balzer, a well known surf photographer, joined us to take pictures.

The surf in Indonesia was at a totally different level from anything I’d ridden before. From the first day, I really had to step it up. By the last day, I was finally getting a handle on the place. I was so stoked about the experience, I plan to go back in 2005.

While I was there, I rode the biggest, hollowest, fastest waves of my short surfing career, 5-7 hours a day, for 11 days. Here are some of Mike’s shots.






Fiji Summer 2002

My second consequtive year surfing this world class resort in Fiji (more below). Of the 7 days we were there, we only got good surf for about 3. Cloud Break was up to double overhead. I got a taste of what it’s like when it gets really good. Scott Winer was on the trip and as usual got some great shots. Kelly Smith and his fiance Jessica Risko (“J Ro”) came along. Kelly rips. Here’s my best wave of the trip, my first near-barrel at Cloud Break.

Lighting the Way

By illuminating our similarities, the Net can outshine isolation and hatred

by Sky Dayton

(Originally published after the attacks of September 11th, 2001)

Like me, you were probably glued to the Web, TV, and the radio on September 11 in a state alternating between disbelief, grief, and outrage. Our security had been compromised, and it made me feel a sense of powerlessness that I couldn't do anything to prevent the tragedy.

I won't rehash that day—that has already been done eloquently and in abundance by others. And I feel very strongly that the best way for most of us to combat those who would do us in is to continue to thrive despite it all; if it is our freedom and vibrant life that their misguided acts seek to snuff out, we declare victory simply by continuing to flourish and prosper.

However, I will make a couple of observations about the Internet and communication in the context of September 11. I believe that the Internet has an important role in the long-term solution to hatred around the world and the terrorism it promotes.

POKEMON, KOBE BRYANT, AND THE KORAN
One ingredient missing among people who are blindly prejudiced against one another is the free exchange of ideas and communication. Other things may be missing as well, such as religious tolerance or even (as in this example) basic human decency. Evil does exist and must be handled with force, but even evil people require the support of others for their survival. Fortunately, the vast majority of people are basically good. But even good people can be misled.

Talking with a murderous lunatic will not make him sane, but it can wake up those who may fall under his spell. This is why maniacal dictators are so opposed to Western television and the Internet. They make claims about not allowing their cultures to be "corrupted"—but really, they're just keeping their populations in the dark. The worst terror will come from the places most isolated from the rest of the world.

The boom in Internet-enabled communication has already brought the civilized world closer together.It's common these days for us to send emails to people around the world. Through the Web, people of nations all over the Earth interact with one another billions of times a day, and in the process, learn of one another's cultures, customs, religions, dreams, and all the minutiae of daily life.

This communication creates aspects of common reality and an affinity among people. It's hard for prejudiced but basically decent people to support the murder of innocents when they have seen their faces and share a common reality. Even if that common reality is a love of basketball stars or the latest Pokemon craze. Again, I'm not talking about curing lunatics here—only those who might fall under their spell.

It used to be that realities were divided by geography, by the thousands of miles that separate people and cultures. The Internet promises to erase the space between people and make geography irrelevant. This is especially important in those places still isolated from the outside world today.

THE INTERNET SURVIVES A TERRIBLE TEST
It's hard to believe that back in 1994 many considered the Internet a novelty. Critics made condescending comparisons to CB radio. The Internet, they said, was just a passing fad. How silly and wrong they were.

The Internet has grown up in seven years and taken its rightful place as a primary communications medium along with television, radio, and print. This was more obvious than ever on September 11.

We've all heard the stories of people from New York City instant messaging friends to let them know they were OK, of millions of family and friends checking up on each other across the world by email, of the Web providing instant detailed information on every aspect of the situation in a way no other medium can. Phone lines were jammed, but emails got through.

September 11 has passed, and we're still here. The Internet is still here, and its value to our culture is greater and more obvious than ever before. Moreover, the Internet is now an important ingredient in bringing people out of the darkness of isolation and erasing hatred around the world.

More communication is always better. Enough of it will illuminate even the darkest corners of the Earth, build common realities, and even create affinity and understanding between people where there was only blind, ignorant hatred before.

At EarthLink, this is why we come to work in the morning—to bring about a better world through the free exchange of communication between people over the Internet. This is our mission, and our contribution.

Fiji Summer 2001

Tavarua Summer 2001

I went to Tavarua, a world famous surf island in Fiji, for the first time last summer. I was fortunate to be with a great group that brings Scott Winer, associate photo editor of Surfing Magazine, along every year to take surfing shots. Scott is a world class photographer, a great bodyboarder and a not so great backgammon player (which I took advantage of).

Tavarua has three main breaks: Cloudbreak, a reef that captures energy from deep water swell rolling out of the Southern Ocean to produce massive barreling left breaking waves; Restaurants, another reef break that’s a little smaller than Cloudbreak but churns some of the most amazing left barrels on Earth; and Tavarua Rights, which very rarely breaks (to my dismay as a regular-foot). Here’s some interesting trivia: The character played by Tom Hanks in the movie Castaway has to get his little boat over a giant wave to escape the desert island he’s been trapped on for years. That wave is Cloudbreak.

Unfortunately, our trip was interrupted by a storm and we had a couple of additional days when the waves just weren’t breaking. However, when it was breaking, Cloudbreak was firing. Scott Winer took a few good shots of my amateur style trying to surf this epic left for the first time. I envied the goofy-footers on our trip (and noticed curiously that over half of the surfers there were goofy-foot).



Your Health under Your Control

Log on and get answers

By Sky Dayton

(Originally published July, 2001)

SKY WRITING

We're alive at an interesting time. Over the next few years and the coming decades, we will see incredible advances in medicine, including cures for fatal diseases, greater longevity, and improved overall fitness and health.

As I mentioned in a recent bLink column, I think the Internet will be one of the primary catalysts for these advances by allowing scientists and doctors all over the world to communicate instantly and share their knowledge.

On a much more basic level, however, the Internet will affect how each and every one of us approaches healthcare. Traditionally, we got information about taking care of ourselves from our local medical doctors and other health practitioners like chiropractors, physical therapists, acupuncturists, etc. Unfortunately, no matter how caring and competent our local practitioners are, they can't possibly be fully up to date on the latest advances in medicine or the broad range of treatments and therapies available for every physical condition.

With the Internet, we now have an alternative source for health information. With hundreds of online discussion groups and health-related Web sites, covering almost every conceivable topic, anyone can log on and get answers, or at least be pointed in the right direction.

In the January 1999 issue of bLink, I mentioned a great example of this in the LaGrow family, EarthLink members who contacted us to let us know that the Internet changed their lives. The LaGrows had a young daughter who gradually lost her ability to walk and became wheelchair-bound. For years they went to specialists who could give them no diagnosis. When they finally did receive a diagnosis—a rare disease called dystonia—there was no hope of a cure, until they turned to the Internet. Searching the Net, they found not only Web sites discussing their daughter's disease, but learned about a conference of medical professionals and dystonia patients. A few months later, they found a local specialist to help them—and they found a seemingly miraculous treatment. Within 24 hours of beginning the treatment, their daughter was walking on her own again.

The LaGrows are the perfect example of a movement gaining momentum every day online. This movement toward Internet self-help doesn't mean that the Internet will replace the local practitioner—quite the contrary. The Internet will be a valuable resource for local practitioners. But it does mean that patients (healthcare customers) now have the ability to become better informed and to demand that their health practitioners are, too. Ultimately, this should raise the quality of treatment at all levels.

In a very real way, the Internet puts YOUR health under YOUR control. Anyone can use it to find helpful people and essential information that might be difficult, if not impossible, to find through other means.

As you begin to explore the Internet health resources offered in this issue (or those you've discovered on your own), keep in mind that these resources may seem a little overwhelming at first. There is so much material available. You can literally get information from every possible perspective and every possible healing practice. As individuals and patients, we must balance this great flood of information by taking the time to inform ourselves thoroughly. As I've said before, the Net is a bit like the Wild West. It's not terribly well-regulated or neatly laid out, and it's up to us, as Internet users, to judge the worth of the information we find. But as the LaGrows discovered, the effort spent can bring great, lifelong rewards.

Remember also that the more each of us makes use of and contributes to Internet health resources (through personal Web sites, message board postings, etc.), the more we will help drive the great medical advances which are already on the horizon. With people all over the world searching for truly workable health solutions, the methods that do work, and the doctors and other practitioners who are successful, will become broadly known—not merely those already inside the healthcare establishment. As recognition of these people and methods spreads, they will begin to influence the way everyone thinks of healthcare and they will spur on the researchers who are working for a brighter future.

Here's to your health!

Valedictorian Speech: To the Internet Class of 2000

by Sky Dayton
 (Originally published Summer 2001)

At this time of year, students all across the nation are preparing to graduate into the real world. For many Internet companies—after a wild, two-year education—that graduation has already taken place.

For me, 1999 was both a great and strange year. Great because EarthLink continued to boom. Strange because of the stock market euphoria enveloping the Internet world.

There was something in the air that year, something youthful, wild, and intoxicating. Myopic investors besotted with optimism threw money recklessly at just about any company that had anything to do with the Internet. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan put it best when he described investor glee during that period as "irrational exuberance."

CLASS OF MISFITS, MALCONTENTS, AND MAESTROS
1999 was like senior year of high school for Internet companies. School is a funny thing—success and popularity are determined by a set of social laws that have nothing to do with the outside world. Note how there's often an inverse relationship between popularity in school and success in later life. The prom queen bags groceries at the local supermarket, while the geek who never quite fit in runs one of the world's largest companies. (I was a relatively unpopular gawky kid voted "most likely to succeed" by my fourth-grade class—I'll let you decide to which category I belong.)

2000 saw the Internet graduate into the real world. A class of companies was thrust out of their protected pale into the glaring sunlight of reality. Weak, one-dimensional adolescent enterprises that once easily made great headlines were now forced to get a job.

Here we are in 2001 and reality is harsh. Finally! Because when the stock market responded solely to buzz and rewarded companies with zero revenue and zero chance of future profitability, it cheapened the hard work of legitimate entrepreneurs and companies with real business models. For me, graduation to reality has been a welcome, if ugly, process.

DEATH OF "FREE"
While day traders made a killing on Internet stocks in 1999, it was an agonizing year for entrepreneurs with sound business models. Too much capital flowed into too many Internet companies, increasing competition for the handful of enterprises that insisted on approaching their market sensibly. Companies that couldn't find any other way to differentiate themselves competed solely on price, giving away service to gain customers. And investors played along by plugging the holes in their business models with barrels of stock market cash.

The "free" ISP, born in 1999, serves as the most infamous example of this indiscretion. While there is precedent for a 100 percent advertiser-supported medium, such as television and radio, the costs of providing an ISP service are well above the advertising revenue possible today. Any neophyte CFO can tell you that. But investors turned the other cheek and pumped billions into free ISPs. Today, most of them are out of business and billions are lost, but not before, at least temporarily, driving up the cost of doing business for EarthLink and other prudent ISPs with sound models.

THE FUTURE: RETURN TO REALITY
The stock market downturn of 2000, which continues thus far in 2001, has already purged weaker companies (like many of the free ISPs) from the system. And it isn't over yet. But while painful for all, this return to reality is a blessing for real companies. grad

Commercial enterprises exist to provide a needed product or service in order to make a profit. Every now and then, the product or service can have a major lasting, positive impact on the world and be incredibly profitable. The Internet promises this combination, which is why it's so fun to be a part of this industry.

The Internet is an entrepreneur's dream. Here we have relatively low barriers to entry (it's easier to set up an Internet business than most other types), a service that is in insatiable demand the world over, and a technology that lowers the costs of doing business in just about any industry it touches.

In the long run, this means great profits for well-run Internet businesses. I've written in this column before that the Internet was still a "ground floor" opportunity for entrepreneurs and investors. I believe it even more, now that the competitive environment is healthier.

PEERING THROUGH THE FROTH
But we need a healthy view of the Internet industry. The press that once lauded anything labeled "dot com," in a 180-degree reversal, now delights in tearing apart all Internet companies and gleefully reports on firms closing up shop and going out of business.

The "irrational exuberance" of investor sentiment that Greenspan warned of has been replaced by "irrational pessimism." The thinking used to be: "It will always be this good." Now it's: "It will always be this bad." Both viewpoints are wrong.

So what is really going on here? To see it, one must look below the superficial froth of the stock market and newspaper headlines. Underneath, there's an undeniable current that has been flowing in the same direction since 1993: The Internet is fundamentally changing the way business is done and the way people interact, every day.

Regardless of stock valuations, financial market conditions, and anything anyone in the press has to say, more people are using the Internet to do more things more and more of the time. Since the Internet began its boom in 1993, the number of Internet users in North America has exploded to 120 million today, with nearly 250 million Internet users worldwide. That's impressive growth by any standards, and it shows no signs of letting up anytime soon. This means that the Internet isn't a fad or a bubble or any other transitory phenomenon. The Internet represents a basic shift in the way people do things.

Since the earliest computers were created, the goal of information technology has been to remove the excess time and space from personal and business activities. The first word processors made it much faster and easier to produce high-quality documents. The first home accounting software meant people could spend less time balancing their checkbooks. The first office email program meant people could send messages to each other without trucks and airplanes.

The Internet is the culmination of information technology. It is a way for people everywhere in the world to communicate with each other instantly. It is an infinitely large warehouse of nearly all information in existence. It is a public forum for debates on every topic imaginable. It is the only medium for businesses to directly and immediately interact with their customers. As it continues to grow, it will be the most pervasive communications medium of the 21st century.

The euphoria of 1999 is now long past, and the pessimism that followed may seem like it will never end. But it will. It takes many, many years to build an industry, and the Internet is just starting to mature. Much has happened, but this is only the beginning.

Cabo San Lucas Spring 2001

I surfed with some friends at a deserted “secret spot” in the back country near Cabo San Lucas, Baja in the Spring of 2001. The day before, we surfed the spot until dark, and when we tried to get our van out to get back to the hotel, we got it stuck in the sand. Fortunately, we had packed big lunches which we couldn’t finish, so we converted the leftovers to dinner and slept in the van. We woke up the next morning to a beautiful sunrise and head high perfect waves!

There were only a few other guys out, and one of them was Chris Owen, a Nokia sales exec who also happened to be a great surfer and surf photographer. In fact, one of his shots had recently landed on the cover of Surfing Magazine. When Chris put on his flippers, helmet and waterproof camera rig, he offered to take some shots of me.